As the PGA Tour’s FedEx Cup Playoffs roll into the second leg at Caves Valley Golf Club in Owings Mills, Maryland, the stakes couldn’t be higher. Following Justin Rose’s dramatic playoff victory over J.J. Spaun at the FedEx St. Jude Championship in Memphis, the field has narrowed to the top 50 players, all vying for one of the 30 spots in next week’s Tour Championship at East Lake. Scottie Scheffler maintains a commanding lead at the top of the standings after a solid top-10 finish in Memphis, extending his dominance from the regular season where he racked up multiple wins and consistent performances. Rory McIlroy holds firm in second place despite skipping the first playoff event to rest, preserving his points cushion. Spaun’s runner-up effort catapulted him to third with 3,344 points, while Rose’s win propelled him into fourth, adding 2,000 points to his tally and marking a remarkable resurgence for the 45-year-old veteran. Tommy Fleetwood rounds out the top five after a heartbreaking collapse in regulation at St. Jude, where he led late but settled for third.
The middle of the pack is packed with talent, including names like Sepp Straka, Russell Henley, and Collin Morikawa in the top 10, but the real drama lies around the bubble: Viktor Hovland sits precariously at 28th with 1,297 points, Akshay Bhatia at 29th (1,276 points), and defending FedEx Cup champion Lucas Glover clinging to 30th (1,234 points). Just behind them, players like Sam Stevens (31st, 1,207 points) and Ryan Gerard (32nd, 1,202 points) are within striking distance, but with only about 300 points separating 30th from 50th overall—and quadruple points on offer this week (2,000 for the winner)—expect massive shifts. Lower in the field, Xander Schauffele (43rd, 1,099 points) and Jason Day (44th) are surprisingly on the Tour Championship bubble after underwhelming starts to the playoffs, while Rickie Fowler (48th), Kurt Kitayama (37th), Bud Cauley (46th), Jhonattan Vegas (49th), and J.T. Poston (50th) barely squeaked in with strong Memphis showings. Jordan Spieth, Wyndham Clark, and others like Min Woo Lee fell short of the top 50, ending their seasons and costing them signature event exemptions for 2026. With Caves Valley’s renovated par-70 layout stretching to 7,601 yards—featuring tight fairways, elevation changes, and firmer, more contoured greens—this week’s event promises birdie opportunities for the bold but punishment for the imprecise, setting the stage for a thrilling battle where season-long consistency meets high-pressure execution.
Here are five players who look primed for a strong showing at Caves Valley, based on their recent form, statistical fit to the course, and historical performance:
1. Scottie Scheffler: As the runaway leader in the FedEx Cup standings and the betting favorite at +220, Scheffler is in peak form after a top-10 at St. Jude, where his ball-striking prowess shone despite some putting inconsistencies. Caves Valley’s length and demand for precision off the tee play right into his strengths—he ranks first on Tour in strokes gained: off-the-tee and total this season. With no finish outside the top 10 since March, he’s poised to extend his lead and potentially clinch another win on a course that rewards his all-around dominance.
2. Rory McIlroy: Returning fresh after skipping Memphis, McIlroy sits comfortably in second and is listed at +800 odds, making him a value play. His prodigious driving distance (averaging over 320 yards) will be a massive advantage on this extended layout, much like it was in his strong playoff runs in past years. McIlroy’s ability to handle elevation changes and attack par-5s with power aligns perfectly with Caves Valley, and with motivation to close the gap on Scheffler before East Lake, expect him to contend early and often.
3. Justin Rose: Hot off his playoff triumph at St. Jude—his first PGA Tour win in over a year—Rose has vaulted to fourth in the standings and is riding a wave of confidence. At 45, he’s the oldest winner since Phil Mickelson in 2021, showcasing clutch putting and iron play that erased a late deficit in Memphis. Caves Valley’s challenging greens and need for accurate approaches suit his veteran precision (top-20 in strokes gained: approach this season), and his experience in high-stakes events could see him push for back-to-back playoff victories.
4. Patrick Cantlay: The 2021 BMW Champion at this very venue, Cantlay knows Caves Valley intimately, having outlasted Bryson DeChambeau in a marathon six-hole playoff four years ago. Currently projected in the top 15 of the standings after a steady St. Jude, his elite putting on bentgrass greens and ability to scramble in tight spots make him a course horse here. With recent top-20 finishes and a history of peaking in playoffs (back-to-back BMW wins in 2021-22), he’s primed to leverage familiarity and climb toward the top 10.
5. Collin Morikawa: Sitting securely in the top 10 after a consistent Memphis performance, Morikawa’s laser-like iron play (leading the Tour in strokes gained: approach) is tailor-made for Caves Valley’s recontoured greens and bunker-heavy design. His accuracy off the tee will help navigate the tight fairways, and recent putting improvements have elevated his game—he’s posted multiple top-5s this summer. As a two-time major winner with a knack for birdie-friendly setups, Morikawa could make a big move and solidify his Tour Championship starting position.
